GrainStrategy

Smoky Hill Acres

Dell Ostrander · Smith County, KS · Wes Tolliver · client since 2016

42k bu at 79% priced
$293.8K under management
Price to the planCosts are estimatesLast spoke in 3 months4 other findings(785) 555-8594
3 of 3 break-evens did not come from this family's books. The plans built on them are sound and the numbers under them are what somebody remembered, so the confidence in every margin on the other tabs is capped by that. Worth saying out loud to Dell Ostrander rather than leaving implied.
From their books
0%
The rest were stated on a call or estimated from county averages.
Oldest
6 mo
The desk treats anything past 6 months as not trusted.
Desk cushion
$0.10
A break-even is an estimate, so pricing exactly at one is pricing at the midpoint of an error bar.
On Farmer Metrics
No
Costs have to be collected by phone every season.

Cost of production, by crop

CropBreak-evenSourceAs ofExpectedCost of the cropCash bid over costTrusted
Soybeans
new crop · 239 acres at 37 bu
$11.05Stated on a callFeb 9, 2026
6 months old
8,843 bu$97,715
$409/acre
-$0.39
bid $10.66
With a caveat
Soybeans
old crop · 212 acres at 44 bu
$10.58Stated on a callAug 9, 20269,328 bu$98,690
$466/acre
+$0.04
bid $10.62
With a caveat
Corn
new crop · 181 acres at 134 bu
$3.76County estimateJul 9, 2026
1 month old
24k bu$91,195
$504/acre
+$0.37
bid $4.13
With a caveat

The desk treats a break-even older than 6 months as not trusted, because six months spans a planting-to-harvest change in fertilizer, fuel and cash rent. A February break-even used to justify an August sale is a different farm's numbers.

Cost per acre is the cost of the crop divided by planted acres, so it moves with yield as well as with cost. A good year lowers the cost per bushel without a single input getting cheaper, which is the part clients find hardest to believe and the reason the plan is written in dollars per bushel.