Prairie Fire Land & Cattle
Doug Larsen · Republic County, KS · Owen Speck · client since 2015
404k bu at 81% priced
$1.6M under management
Price to the planCosts are estimatesLast spoke in 3 months5 other findings(785) 555-3238
2 break-evens are more than 6 months old. Every target, every margin and every recommendation on those crops is measured against numbers set before this season's fertilizer, fuel and cash rent were known. Getting Doug Larsen onto Farmer Metrics is what stops this being a phone call every six months. See the referral path.
From their books
0%
The rest were stated on a call or estimated from county averages.
Oldest
8 mo
The desk treats anything past 6 months as not trusted.
Desk cushion
$0.10
A break-even is an estimate, so pricing exactly at one is pricing at the midpoint of an error bar.
On Farmer Metrics
No
Costs have to be collected by phone every season.
Cost of production, by crop
| Crop | Break-even | Source | As of | Expected | Cost of the crop | Cash bid over cost | Trusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn new crop · 1,228 acres at 181 bu | $4.30 | Stated on a call | Jan 9, 2026 7 months old | 222k bu | $955,752 $778/acre | -$0.17 bid $4.13 | Out of date |
| Corn old crop · 1,206 acres at 151 bu | $4.43 | County estimate | Dec 9, 2025 8 months old | 182k bu | $806,730 $669/acre | -$0.47 bid $3.96 | Out of date |
The desk treats a break-even older than 6 months as not trusted, because six months spans a planting-to-harvest change in fertilizer, fuel and cash rent. A February break-even used to justify an August sale is a different farm's numbers.
Cost per acre is the cost of the crop divided by planted acres, so it moves with yield as well as with cost. A good year lowers the cost per bushel without a single input getting cheaper, which is the part clients find hardest to believe and the reason the plan is written in dollars per bushel.