Painted Sky Family Farms
Beth Ellison · Mitchell County, KS · Katie Rennick · client since 2023
645k bu at 51% priced
$2.7M under management
Price to the planCosts are estimatesLast spoke in 16 days2 other findings(785) 555-2054
2 of 2 break-evens did not come from this family's books. The plans built on them are sound and the numbers under them are what somebody remembered, so the confidence in every margin on the other tabs is capped by that. Worth saying out loud to Beth Ellison rather than leaving implied.
From their books
0%
The rest were stated on a call or estimated from county averages.
Oldest
4 mo
The desk treats anything past 6 months as not trusted.
Desk cushion
$0.10
A break-even is an estimate, so pricing exactly at one is pricing at the midpoint of an error bar.
On Farmer Metrics
No
Costs have to be collected by phone every season.
Cost of production, by crop
| Crop | Break-even | Source | As of | Expected | Cost of the crop | Cash bid over cost | Trusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn new crop · 2,268 acres at 154 bu | $4.50 | Stated on a call | Apr 9, 2026 4 months old | 349k bu | $1,571,724 $693/acre | -$0.29 bid $4.21 | With a caveat |
| Corn old crop · 2,126 acres at 139 bu | $3.96 | County estimate | Jul 9, 2026 1 month old | 296k bu | $1,170,235 $550/acre | +$0.08 bid $4.04 | With a caveat |
The desk treats a break-even older than 6 months as not trusted, because six months spans a planting-to-harvest change in fertilizer, fuel and cash rent. A February break-even used to justify an August sale is a different farm's numbers.
Cost per acre is the cost of the crop divided by planted acres, so it moves with yield as well as with cost. A good year lowers the cost per bushel without a single input getting cheaper, which is the part clients find hardest to believe and the reason the plan is written in dollars per bushel.