GrainStrategy

Old Cedar Land & Cattle

Lori Novak · Thayer County, NE · Danae Kruse · client since 2017

107k bu at 62% priced
$795.2K under management
Call before pricingCosts are stated, not from their booksLast spoke in 54 days5 other findings(785) 555-9552
3 of 3 break-evens did not come from this family's books. The plans built on them are sound and the numbers under them are what somebody remembered, so the confidence in every margin on the other tabs is capped by that. Worth saying out loud to Lori Novak rather than leaving implied.
From their books
0%
The rest were stated on a call or estimated from county averages.
Oldest
5 mo
The desk treats anything past 6 months as not trusted.
Desk cushion
$0.10
A break-even is an estimate, so pricing exactly at one is pricing at the midpoint of an error bar.
On Farmer Metrics
No
Costs have to be collected by phone every season.

Cost of production, by crop

CropBreak-evenSourceAs ofExpectedCost of the cropCash bid over costTrusted
Wheat
new crop · 598 acres at 64 bu
$5.19Stated on a callMar 9, 2026
5 months old
38k bu$198,632
$332/acre
+$0.60
bid $5.79
With a caveat
Wheat
old crop · 583 acres at 57 bu
$5.47Stated on a callMar 9, 2026
5 months old
33k bu$181,774
$312/acre
-$0.23
bid $5.24
With a caveat
Soybeans
new crop · 619 acres at 58 bu
$10.59Stated on a callJun 9, 2026
2 months old
36k bu$380,202
$614/acre
+$0.24
bid $10.83
With a caveat

The desk treats a break-even older than 6 months as not trusted, because six months spans a planting-to-harvest change in fertilizer, fuel and cash rent. A February break-even used to justify an August sale is a different farm's numbers.

Cost per acre is the cost of the crop divided by planted acres, so it moves with yield as well as with cost. A good year lowers the cost per bushel without a single input getting cheaper, which is the part clients find hardest to believe and the reason the plan is written in dollars per bushel.